One Week Out

Yesterday, Oscar ballots were turned in and a week from today, they will announce the nominees at an abnormally early time for the west coast. So, I guess a person in my position should make one final prediction for the 91st Academy Award nominees.

BEST PICTURE: 

• A Star Is Born
• BlacKkKlansman
• Black Panther
• Bohemian Rhapsody 
• Crazy Rich Asians 
• The Favourite 
• First Man 
• Green Book 
• Roma 
• Vice 

Of the ten nominees, I have to say that Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, and, First Man are just on the cusp of getting in there. I believe that screeners may push First Man over the final hurlde, but these three films can just as easily slide out and we’re left with the seven nominees that have been locked in since September. I do not believe the final seven to ten nominees reflect the overall quality of 2018. When we look back at these nominees, it will be remembred as the moment when a bunch of award season writers and critics inadventurely “red pilled” themselves in a feverious attempt to defend Green Book from a much earned critical push back.  As I said after watching it: if defending this picture is the hill you want to die, then you may need to seek some medical treatment. I think the inclusion of younger members into the Academy will stop Green Book from achiving Oscar glory (The Orange County Effect), but the Academy is due for another Crash like fuck up. It would be a fitting end to John Bailey’s disasterious tenure as Academy president.

Best Director: 

• Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
• Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 
• Alfonso Cuaron, Roma 
• Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman 
• Adam McKay, Vice

For a much deeper take

Best Actress:

• Glenn Close, The Wife
• Olivia Colman, The Favourite
• Toni Collette, Hereditary
• Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
• Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Call me crazy, but I think Collette gets back in there and this will lead to a massive meltdown in Stan/Film Twitter. Emily Blunt is great in Mary Poppins Returns, but I don’t know if the picture its self is connecting with people the way Disney wanted it to. Best Actress especially this year should be allowed to move beyond the five standard nominees. There were far too many great performances. Nicole Kidman in Destroyer, Yalitza Aparicio in Roma, Viola Davis in Widows, amongst others

Best Actor: 

• Christian Bale, Vice
• Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born 
• Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
• Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
• Viggo Mortensen, Green Book 

I think both Vice and First Reformed were two of the best films of 2018, but this particular group of nominees just feels so boring and pedantic. One wore fake teeth and two ate a lot of pizza. It would be great if Hawke was the front runner, but the orchestra should probably start working on their Queen covers.

Best Supporting Actor: 

• Mahershala Ali, Green Book
• Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
• Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Michael B Jordan, Black Panther
• Steven Yeun, Burning

Best Supporting Actress:

• Amy Adams, Vice
• Claire Foy, First Man
• Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
• Emma Stone, The Favourite
• Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians

The supporting categories have the best performances to pull from and it will be very interesting to see who makes the final cut. I’ve thought for a while that Awkwafina would pick up a nomination, but I think Michelle Yeoh actually gets it. It’s very possible that Stone and Rachel Weisz cancel each other and maybe Thomasin McKenzie (Leave No Trace) and/or Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased) get across the finish line. However, I think Stone gets the supporting nomination because she’s actually the lead. In the male branch, it’s a three way fight between Ali, Elliott, and Grant. If Elliott wins, then it’s going to be a fun night for B Coops. If Grant wins, it’s going to be a very wild night. Ali delivers a great performance in a bad film and I can’t really complain about him winning.

Best Original Screenplay:

• The Favourite 
• First Reformed
• Roma 
• Sorry To Bother You
• Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay:

• A Star Is Born
• BlacKkKlansman
• Can You Ever Forgive Me?
• Crazy Rich Asians
• If Beale Street Could Talk 

Best Foreign Language Film: 

• Burning
• Capernaum
• Cold War 
• Roma
• Shoplifters

Best Cinematography:

• Cold War 
• The Favourite 
• First Man 
• If Beale Street Could Talk 
• Roma 

Best Editing: 

• BlacKkKlansman 
• First Man 
• Mission: Impossible – Fallout
• Roma 
• Vice

Best Production Design: 

• Black Panther
• Crazy Rich Asians
• The Favourite
• First Man
• Mary Poppins Returns

Best Costume Design: 

• Black Panther
• Colette
• Crazy Rich Asians 
• The Favourite 
• Mary Poppins Returns

Best Song: 

• “All The Stars” from Black Panther
• “Girl In The Movies” from Dumplin’
• “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns
• “I’ll Fight” from RGB
• “Shallow” from A Star Is Born

Best Score:

• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman
• First Man 
• If Beale Street Could Talk 
• Isle of Dogs

Best Documentary: 

• Free Solo 
• Minding The Gap 
• RBG
• Shirkers 
• Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

Best Animated Film:

• Incredibes 2 
• Isle of Dogs
• The Night is Short, Walk on Girl
• Ralph Breaks the Internet
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Let’s check back in a week to see how much I got wrong.